Tag: yougov

Final Yougov MRP: Lib Dem Gain

The final Yougov MRP data, published minutes ago, will delight Lib Dem supporters. Yougov’s latest data, published minutes ago, suggests that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex with a 43% share of the vote. Yougov put the Conservatives in second place with 24.5%, and Labour in third with 17.4%. This suggests a fairly comfortable win for the Lib Dems and is a significant shift for the Lib Dems from Yougov’s last MRP which had them on 36%, the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

This is another significant poll which suggests that the Lib Dems will take the Mid Sussex constituency. To this we say to those who wish to prevent the Tory candidate taking the seat, do not be complacent and vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #2

Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows:

ConsLabourLib DemGreenReformOutcome
33%27%21%9%11%Cons hold

YouGov state that the method used for this projection uses the same statistical method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections.1

Like Electoral Calculus, this data suggests that Labour will take second place, but that the gap between the two will be greater.

Once again, should you be seeking to vote tactically to remove the Conservative, your vote should probably go to the Labour Party, Dave Rowntree.

  1. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats ↩︎