The final Yougov MRP data, published minutes ago, will delight Lib Dem supporters. Yougov’s latest data, published minutes ago, suggests that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex with a 43% share of the vote. Yougov put the Conservatives in second place with 24.5%, and Labour in third with 17.4%. This suggests a fairly comfortable win for the Lib Dems and is a significant shift for the Lib Dems from Yougov’s last MRP which had them on 36%, the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.
This is another significant poll which suggests that the Lib Dems will take the Mid Sussex constituency. To this we say to those who wish to prevent the Tory candidate taking the seat, do not be complacent and vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex.
In marked contrast to the final Survation poll, More In Common’s final MRP suggests the Mid Sussex seat will be a Liberal Democrat gain with 30% of the vote. They put the Conservatives in second place with 28% of the vote, and Labour in third with 24%. This is a marked change from their previous poll, in which they put the Lib Dems on 40%, the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on just 16%. This new poll represents a significant weakening of the Lib Dem potential share, and a major strengthening of the Labour vote.
This poll will not be good news for the Lib Dems.
This final poll from More in Common suggests that the result in Mid Sussex could be very tight. There really is everything to play for for the three main parties.
We stand by our advice to vote Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory candidate being elected. This is especially the case if you are considering voting Labour to punish the Conservatives. We maintain that voting Labour in Mid Sussex will only serve to split the Tory opposition vote, which could potentially see the Conservative candidate elected.
Survation, which has consistently predicted that the Labour Party will take Mid Sussex, have published their final MRP poll. This still shows that Labour will gain Mid Sussex-but by a smaller margin.
They put Labour on 29.8% – down from 30.6% in their last poll. Meanwhile the Conservatives are on 29.3% in their latest research, up from 26.1%. The Liberal Democrats are now on 25.1%, up from 23.6% in Survation’s last MRP.
Survation also state that there is a 51% chance that Labour will win in Mid Sussex, a 37% chance that the Conservatives will win, and a 12% chance that the Lib Dems will take the seat.
It is worth noting that whilst Survation has consistently shown this result, it is very much an outlier (despite but Labour would have you believe); most of the other polls predict a Lib Dem victory, hence why we advise voting Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory taking the seat.
In what represents a significant change in projections, Electoral Calculus’ latest update predicts that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex.
Updated data suggests that the Conservative candidate will take 29.6% of the vote (essentially unchanged from their previous projection of 28.7%), whilst the Labour candidate drops from a 29.1% share to 23.1%. Meanwhile the Lib Dem projected share of the vote is up to 35.3% from 26.7% in the previous Electoral Calculus projection.
The latest projection also has predicted turnout up by nearly 4% which looks like it could make a big difference to the outcome.
Electoral Calculus now believe that there is a 57% chance that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex.
Previously we at MidSussex.org have suggested that those who are keen to see the Conservative candidate prevented from taking the seat should tactically vote Labour. On the basis of this poll, if the election were today, we would suggest that to keep the Conservative candidate out your vote should go to the Lib Dems in Mid Sussex. Of course this may change again in coming days.
Of course, we are aware that there are many in Mid Sussex who could never bring themselves to vote Labour but could vote Lib Dem. With this new projection it’s possible that more former Conservatives could vote tactically, which could actually see the Lib Dems increase their projected share of the vote in Mid Sussex.
Remember that Electoral Calculus claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”
Our first prediction is courtesy of Electoral Calculus, which claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”1
Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives in Mid Sussex will hold the seat. According to their calculations2, the Conservatives will gain 29.7% of votes (down from a 48.3% share in 2019), the Lib Dems will gain 26.7% of the vote (down from 28.9% of the vote), and Labour will gain 29.1% of the vote (up from 18.0%).
According to this prediction, whilst the Conservatives will hold the seat, Labour will come incredibly close to taking the seat. Should you be inclined to vote tactically in order to prevent the Conservatives winning, on the basis of this prediction, your X be given to Dave Rowntree, the Labour candidate.
