dave rowntree – Mid Sussex Election Watch

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #2

Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows:

Cons	Labour	Lib Dem	Green	Reform	Outcome
33%	27%	21%	9%	11%	Cons hold

YouGov state that the method used for this projection uses the same statistical method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections.¹

Like Electoral Calculus, this data suggests that Labour will take second place, but that the gap between the two will be greater.

Once again, should you be seeking to vote tactically to remove the Conservative, your vote should probably go to the Labour Party, Dave Rowntree.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats ↩︎

Campaign Literature: Labour #1

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #1

Our first prediction is courtesy of Electoral Calculus, which claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”¹

Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives in Mid Sussex will hold the seat. According to their calculations², the Conservatives will gain 29.7% of votes (down from a 48.3% share in 2019), the Lib Dems will gain 26.7% of the vote (down from 28.9% of the vote), and Labour will gain 29.1% of the vote (up from 18.0%).

According to this prediction, whilst the Conservatives will hold the seat, Labour will come incredibly close to taking the seat. Should you be inclined to vote tactically in order to prevent the Conservatives winning, on the basis of this prediction, your X be given to Dave Rowntree, the Labour candidate.