prediction – Mid Sussex Election Watch

So who came closest? Analysing Poll Accuracy in the 2024 Mid Sussex Election

Poll	Liberal Democrat	Conservative	Labour	Reform UK	Green	TOTAL DIFFERENCE
ELECTION RESULT	39.6	27.1	17.6	11.1	3.8	N/A
Yougov	43	24.5	17.4	11.3	3.7	6.5
Electoral Calculus	45.3	25.1	18	8.3	3.8	10.9
New Statesman	31.5	24.5	18.7	14.8	5.4	17.1
Electionmapsuk	33.2	24	21.6	15	5	19.3
More in Common	30	28	24	10	6	20.2
Financial Times	31	24.2	24.3	16.2	3.1	24
IPSOS	25	30	28	11	5	29.2
Survation	25.1	29.3	29.8	10.3	4.8	30.7

At Mid Sussex Election Watch we carefully monitored the pre-election opinion polls to get a sense of how the election might turn out in our constituency. Now that the election has happened we thought it might be interesting to go back and look at just how accurate these polls were. We looked at the difference between the actual result and the prediction for each party in each poll, and then calculated the total difference across all the parties for each poll. This proved to be very interesting.

Among the various polls analyzed, YouGov emerged as the most accurate, with a total difference of just 6.5 percentage points across all parties. This poll was particularly spot-on with its predictions for Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party, with minimal deviations from the actual results. Such accuracy reinforces YouGov’s reputation as a reliable source for gauging public sentiment.

In second place was Electoral Calculus, which had a total difference of 10.9 percentage points. While slightly less precise than YouGov, Electoral Calculus still provided relatively close estimates, especially for the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.

The other polls showed more significant discrepancies. For instance, More in Common and Financial Times had larger total differences of 20.2 and 24 points, respectively. These polls overestimated support for Labour and underestimated the Liberal Democrat vote share, highlighting the challenges pollsters face in capturing the shifting dynamics of voter behavior.

Interestingly, Survation and IPSOS were the least accurate, with total differences of 30.7 and 29.2 points, respectively. These polls significantly underestimated the Liberal Democrat performance while overestimating Labour’s share. Such variances underscore the inherent uncertainty in polling, where methodological differences and sampling errors can lead to varied results. Funnily enough, it was the Survation poll that Labour consistently chose to use in their election material. (One of their leaflets was headlined, “Poll after poll shows Lib Dems a distant third in Mid Sussex,” without mentioning that actually it was several versions of the same poll that made this prediction…!).

Election Maps UK provided a new perspective with a total difference of 19.3 points. While not the closest, it offered a fairly accurate prediction compared to other polls, highlighting the evolving landscape of polling methodologies.

Conclusion

Yougov has a reputation for accuracy, and in future elections it is certainly worth reflecting their data. Electoral Calculus is also worth a look. As for the others… well, perhaps take their data with a large pinch of salt!

UPDATE FROM MIDSUSSEX.ORG

We have enjoyed bringing you our thoughts and reflections on the General Election campaign, and hope that you have found our content useful. Now that the election has concluded we have migrated all of our content to https://site.sim.onl/mid-sussex-election-watch/. The MidSussex.org domain name will, in due course, be redirected to that page. No further content will be published to MidSussex.org. Any future observations about politics in Mid Sussex will be posted to https://site.sim.onl. Thanks for visiting MidSussex.org over the last few weeks!

BBC SUGGESTS LIB DEMS TO TAKE MID SUSSEX

Jeremy Vine, on the BBC Election Night show, has suggested that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex. (NB This screen is based on the exit poll, NOT results).

EXIT POLL: MID SUSSEX TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT PROBABLE LIB DEM GAIN

The exit poll has been published and has stated that the result is “too close to call” in Mid Sussex.

That said, the poll gives a 64% chance of a Lib Dem gain and a 36% chance of a Conservative hold.

At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within a range of 1.5 and 7.5 seats.

Final Yougov MRP: Lib Dem Gain

The final Yougov MRP data, published minutes ago, will delight Lib Dem supporters. Yougov’s latest data, published minutes ago, suggests that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex with a 43% share of the vote. Yougov put the Conservatives in second place with 24.5%, and Labour in third with 17.4%. This suggests a fairly comfortable win for the Lib Dems and is a significant shift for the Lib Dems from Yougov’s last MRP which had them on 36%, the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

This is another significant poll which suggests that the Lib Dems will take the Mid Sussex constituency. To this we say to those who wish to prevent the Tory candidate taking the seat, do not be complacent and vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex.

Final More In Common MRP: Lib Dem Gain

In marked contrast to the final Survation poll, More In Common’s final MRP suggests the Mid Sussex seat will be a Liberal Democrat gain with 30% of the vote. They put the Conservatives in second place with 28% of the vote, and Labour in third with 24%. This is a marked change from their previous poll, in which they put the Lib Dems on 40%, the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on just 16%. This new poll represents a significant weakening of the Lib Dem potential share, and a major strengthening of the Labour vote.

This poll will not be good news for the Lib Dems.

This final poll from More in Common suggests that the result in Mid Sussex could be very tight. There really is everything to play for for the three main parties.

We stand by our advice to vote Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory candidate being elected. This is especially the case if you are considering voting Labour to punish the Conservatives. We maintain that voting Labour in Mid Sussex will only serve to split the Tory opposition vote, which could potentially see the Conservative candidate elected.

Final Survation MRP: Labour Gain

Survation, which has consistently predicted that the Labour Party will take Mid Sussex, have published their final MRP poll. This still shows that Labour will gain Mid Sussex-but by a smaller margin.

They put Labour on 29.8% – down from 30.6% in their last poll. Meanwhile the Conservatives are on 29.3% in their latest research, up from 26.1%. The Liberal Democrats are now on 25.1%, up from 23.6% in Survation’s last MRP.

Survation also state that there is a 51% chance that Labour will win in Mid Sussex, a 37% chance that the Conservatives will win, and a 12% chance that the Lib Dems will take the seat.

It is worth noting that whilst Survation has consistently shown this result, it is very much an outlier (despite but Labour would have you believe); most of the other polls predict a Lib Dem victory, hence why we advise voting Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory taking the seat.

Predicting the 2024 Election in Mid Sussex: A Poll Analysis

I’ve not updated this blog for a while – work has been rather busy. I am now on holiday though, and with the election happening next week, I’m going to try and keep an eye on the polling situation in Mid Sussex.

Today I thought we should take a quick look at some of the more recent polls. What is clear is that whilst the Liberal Democrats and Labour parties are both predicting that they will defeat the Conservative candidate, the reality is not quite that straight forward.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the predictions from reputable polling organisations:

The Economist (MRP) – Conservative hold.

The Economist MRP suggests that the Conservatives will hold the Mid Sussex constituency.

IPSOS – Toss up.

IPSOS state that the outcome of the election in Mid Sussex is a ‘Toss up’, in other words too close to call. The put the Conservatives on 30%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 25%.

Survation – Labour gain.

Survation’s data suggests a tight race in Mid Sussex, with Labour currently leading according to their polling, with 31% of the vote. According to them, the Tories will finish in second place with the Lib Dems trailing in third.

Electoral Calculus – Liberal Democrat gain.

According to Electoral Calculus, the Liberal Democrats have a 90% chance of winning in Mid Sussex. They predict that the Lib Dems will secure 45% of the votes, with the Conservatives on 25% and Labour trailing with 17%.

The Economist (incorporating data from other firms) – Liberal Democrat gain.

The Economist have also published a set of predictions which pull in data from other polling firms. In this forecast, the Economist suggests that the Lib Dems are slight favourites to win, with 28% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 26% and Labour on 24%.

More in Common – Liberal Democrat gain.

More in Common state that the Liberal Democrats will win the seat, with 40% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 16%.

YouGov – Liberal Democrat gain.

YouGov’s latest MRP suggests the Liberal Democrats will take the seat, with 36% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

The New Statesman – Liberal Democrat gain.

The New Statesman suggests that the Lib Dems will win in Mid Sussex with 32% of the vote, with the Conservatives in second place on 25% and Labour trailing in third with 19%.

The Financial Times – Liberal Democrat gain.

Based on the national polls, the FT believe that the Liberal Democrats will win in Mid Sussex with 31% of the vote share, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 24%.

Conclusion:

Taking all of these polls into account, it appears that the Liberal Democrats emerge as the most likely party to challenge and potentially defeat the Conservative Party in Mid Sussex. Their strong showing across multiple polls, particularly from YouGov and More in Common, indicates growing support and momentum in the constituency. Labour also presents a formidable challenge, particularly highlighted by Survation’s data showing significant support.

We maintain that the best way to defeat the Conservative candidate is by voting Liberal Democrat on 4th July.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #5: Lib Dems projected to win

Another projection published today, this time by the New Statesman, also suggests that the Lib Dems could take Mid Sussex:

Interestingly, the Lib Dems’ projected share of the vote has declined slightly (down from 34%) from the New Statesman’s projection of 23rd May. Conservative and Labour have remained the same.

The New Statesman’s projections are based on those from Electoral Calculus so should be relatively trustworthy. There’s more in their methodology, and how it differs from that of Electoral Calculus here.

It’s beginning to look like the election in Mid Sussex could be much more interesting than in previous years. There’s a distinct possibility that the Conservatives could lose here. Anyone of a mind to punish the Conservatives should probably consider voting Lib Dem.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #4 MAJOR SHIFT

In what represents a significant change in projections, Electoral Calculus’ latest update predicts that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex.

Updated data suggests that the Conservative candidate will take 29.6% of the vote (essentially unchanged from their previous projection of 28.7%), whilst the Labour candidate drops from a 29.1% share to 23.1%. Meanwhile the Lib Dem projected share of the vote is up to 35.3% from 26.7% in the previous Electoral Calculus projection.

The latest projection also has predicted turnout up by nearly 4% which looks like it could make a big difference to the outcome.

Electoral Calculus now believe that there is a 57% chance that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex.

Previously we at MidSussex.org have suggested that those who are keen to see the Conservative candidate prevented from taking the seat should tactically vote Labour. On the basis of this poll, if the election were today, we would suggest that to keep the Conservative candidate out your vote should go to the Lib Dems in Mid Sussex. Of course this may change again in coming days.

Of course, we are aware that there are many in Mid Sussex who could never bring themselves to vote Labour but could vote Lib Dem. With this new projection it’s possible that more former Conservatives could vote tactically, which could actually see the Lib Dems increase their projected share of the vote in Mid Sussex.

Remember that Electoral Calculus claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.^”

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #3

Another prediction for the election outcome in Mid Sussex comes courtesy of ElectionPolling.co.uk. This site makes predictions based on a weighted average of polls, and then assumes a uniform swing. This is perhaps not as accurate as some, but as they say, “is still interesting nonetheless.”

Their prediction is Conservative hold but, with a significantly reduced majority of 15,802 (just 134 more votes than Labour).

The full details of the ElectionPolling.co.uk projected result in Mid Sussex are:

This projection gives an insignificant share of the vote to “minor parties” however, which presumably would include Reform UK. If the Reform candidate were to be more successful than predicted here (as predicted by Electoral Calculus, who believe Reform UK could get as much as 11% of the vote), that could draw support away from the Conservatives and secure a Labour victory.

As previous projections have suggested, if a voter were of a mind to attempt to block a Conservative victory, the best bet might be to vote Labour. How much that appeals to affluent Mid Sussex voters – particularly those inclined to support the Lib Dems – remains to be seen.