Author: Mid Sussex

Predicting the 2024 Election in Mid Sussex: A Poll Analysis

I’ve not updated this blog for a while – work has been rather busy. I am now on holiday though, and with the election happening next week, I’m going to try and keep an eye on the polling situation in Mid Sussex.

Today I thought we should take a quick look at some of the more recent polls. What is clear is that whilst the Liberal Democrats and Labour parties are both predicting that they will defeat the Conservative candidate, the reality is not quite that straight forward.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the predictions from reputable polling organisations:

The Economist (MRP) – Conservative hold.

The Economist MRP suggests that the Conservatives will hold the Mid Sussex constituency.

IPSOS – Toss up.

IPSOS state that the outcome of the election in Mid Sussex is a ‘Toss up’, in other words too close to call. The put the Conservatives on 30%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 25%.

Survation – Labour gain.

Survation’s data suggests a tight race in Mid Sussex, with Labour currently leading according to their polling, with 31% of the vote. According to them, the Tories will finish in second place with the Lib Dems trailing in third.

Electoral Calculus – Liberal Democrat gain.

According to Electoral Calculus, the Liberal Democrats have a 90% chance of winning in Mid Sussex. They predict that the Lib Dems will secure 45% of the votes, with the Conservatives on 25% and Labour trailing with 17%.

The Economist (incorporating data from other firms) – Liberal Democrat gain.

The Economist have also published a set of predictions which pull in data from other polling firms. In this forecast, the Economist suggests that the Lib Dems are slight favourites to win, with 28% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 26% and Labour on 24%.

More in Common – Liberal Democrat gain.

More in Common state that the Liberal Democrats will win the seat, with 40% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 16%.

YouGov – Liberal Democrat gain.

YouGov’s latest MRP suggests the Liberal Democrats will take the seat, with 36% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

The New Statesman – Liberal Democrat gain.

The New Statesman suggests that the Lib Dems will win in Mid Sussex with 32% of the vote, with the Conservatives in second place on 25% and Labour trailing in third with 19%.

The Financial Times – Liberal Democrat gain.

Based on the national polls, the FT believe that the Liberal Democrats will win in Mid Sussex with 31% of the vote share, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 24%.

Conclusion:

Taking all of these polls into account, it appears that the Liberal Democrats emerge as the most likely party to challenge and potentially defeat the Conservative Party in Mid Sussex. Their strong showing across multiple polls, particularly from YouGov and More in Common, indicates growing support and momentum in the constituency. Labour also presents a formidable challenge, particularly highlighted by Survation’s data showing significant support.

We maintain that the best way to defeat the Conservative candidate is by voting Liberal Democrat on 4th July.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #5: Lib Dems projected to win

Another projection published today, this time by the New Statesman, also suggests that the Lib Dems could take Mid Sussex:

Interestingly, the Lib Dems’ projected share of the vote has declined slightly (down from 34%) from the New Statesman’s projection of 23rd May. Conservative and Labour have remained the same.

The New Statesman’s projections are based on those from Electoral Calculus so should be relatively trustworthy. There’s more in their methodology, and how it differs from that of Electoral Calculus here.

It’s beginning to look like the election in Mid Sussex could be much more interesting than in previous years. There’s a distinct possibility that the Conservatives could lose here. Anyone of a mind to punish the Conservatives should probably consider voting Lib Dem.

Who’s standing in Mid Sussex #3

Reform UK have published more details of their candidate for Mid Sussex on their website:

GARY JOHNSON – REFORM UK

Gary Johnson has lived in the Uckfield area for 30 years. He is married with two children, a granddaughter and three dogs. He was educated in the state sector and states that at eighteen he “had no idea what a university was.” He and his wife have owned and run a care business in Sussex. He previously served as a Conservative district councillor.

Many years ago he was an army reservist and has formerly been a crew member on the Newhaven lifeboat. He has also been a Special Constable in Haywards Heath.

I am state educated and had no idea what a university was when I was eighteen.

For the last thirteen years, together with my wife, we owned and ran a successful care business in Sussex. 

From 2019 – 2023, I served as a Conservative District Councillor (Wealden).

I have always enjoyed volunteering. Many years ago, I was an army reservist. I spent 6 years as part of the RNLI as a crew member on the Newhaven Lifeboat and have also been a Special Constable based at Haywards Heath.

Sourced from https://www.reformparty.uk/mid-sussex-constituency

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #4 **MAJOR SHIFT**

In what represents a significant change in projections, Electoral Calculus’ latest update predicts that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex.

Updated data suggests that the Conservative candidate will take 29.6% of the vote (essentially unchanged from their previous projection of 28.7%), whilst the Labour candidate drops from a 29.1% share to 23.1%. Meanwhile the Lib Dem projected share of the vote is up to 35.3% from 26.7% in the previous Electoral Calculus projection.

The latest projection also has predicted turnout up by nearly 4% which looks like it could make a big difference to the outcome.

Electoral Calculus now believe that there is a 57% chance that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex.

Previously we at MidSussex.org have suggested that those who are keen to see the Conservative candidate prevented from taking the seat should tactically vote Labour. On the basis of this poll, if the election were today, we would suggest that to keep the Conservative candidate out your vote should go to the Lib Dems in Mid Sussex. Of course this may change again in coming days.

Of course, we are aware that there are many in Mid Sussex who could never bring themselves to vote Labour but could vote Lib Dem. With this new projection it’s possible that more former Conservatives could vote tactically, which could actually see the Lib Dems increase their projected share of the vote in Mid Sussex.

Remember that Electoral Calculus claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #3

Another prediction for the election outcome in Mid Sussex comes courtesy of ElectionPolling.co.uk. This site makes predictions based on a weighted average of polls, and then assumes a uniform swing. This is perhaps not as accurate as some, but as they say, “is still interesting nonetheless.”

Their prediction is Conservative hold but, with a significantly reduced majority of 15,802 (just 134 more votes than Labour).

The full details of the ElectionPolling.co.uk projected result in Mid Sussex are:

This projection gives an insignificant share of the vote to “minor parties” however, which presumably would include Reform UK. If the Reform candidate were to be more successful than predicted here (as predicted by Electoral Calculus, who believe Reform UK could get as much as 11% of the vote), that could draw support away from the Conservatives and secure a Labour victory.

As previous projections have suggested, if a voter were of a mind to attempt to block a Conservative victory, the best bet might be to vote Labour. How much that appeals to affluent Mid Sussex voters – particularly those inclined to support the Lib Dems – remains to be seen.

Who’s standing in Mid Sussex #2

According to the latest YouGov MRP the Green Party will gain 9% of the vote in Mid Sussex, and Reform UK will gain a not insignificant 11%. It’s probably worth identifying who will be representing these parties in Mid Sussex.

DEANNA NICHOLSON – GREEN PARTY

Deanna was selected to be the Green Party PPC for Mid Sussex on May 24. She has lived in Haywards Heath for 28 years, and has taught in local schools. She sits on Haywards Heath Town Council.

GARY JOHNSON – REFORM UK

Currently we have no detail. Feel free to contact us if you know who Gary Johnson is.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #2

Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows:

ConsLabourLib DemGreenReformOutcome
33%27%21%9%11%Cons hold

YouGov state that the method used for this projection uses the same statistical method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections.1

Like Electoral Calculus, this data suggests that Labour will take second place, but that the gap between the two will be greater.

Once again, should you be seeking to vote tactically to remove the Conservative, your vote should probably go to the Labour Party, Dave Rowntree.

  1. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats ↩︎