Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows:
| Cons | Labour | Lib Dem | Green | Reform | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 27% | 21% | 9% | 11% | Cons hold |
YouGov state that the method used for this projection uses the same statistical method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections.1
Like Electoral Calculus, this data suggests that Labour will take second place, but that the gap between the two will be greater.
Once again, should you be seeking to vote tactically to remove the Conservative, your vote should probably go to the Labour Party, Dave Rowntree.
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