July 2024 – Mid Sussex Election Watch

Thanks and goodbye!

We have enjoyed bringing you our thoughts and reflections on the General Election campaign, and hope that you have found our content useful. Now that the election has concluded we have migrated all of our content to https://site.sim.onl/mid-sussex-election-watch/. The MidSussex.org domain name will, in due course, be redirected to that page. No further content will be published to MidSussex.org. Any future observations about politics in Mid Sussex will be posted to https://site.sim.onl. Thanks for visiting MidSussex.org over the last few weeks!

So who came closest? Analysing Poll Accuracy in the 2024 Mid Sussex Election

Poll	Liberal Democrat	Conservative	Labour	Reform UK	Green	TOTAL DIFFERENCE
ELECTION RESULT	39.6	27.1	17.6	11.1	3.8	N/A
Yougov	43	24.5	17.4	11.3	3.7	6.5
Electoral Calculus	45.3	25.1	18	8.3	3.8	10.9
New Statesman	31.5	24.5	18.7	14.8	5.4	17.1
Electionmapsuk	33.2	24	21.6	15	5	19.3
More in Common	30	28	24	10	6	20.2
Financial Times	31	24.2	24.3	16.2	3.1	24
IPSOS	25	30	28	11	5	29.2
Survation	25.1	29.3	29.8	10.3	4.8	30.7

At Mid Sussex Election Watch we carefully monitored the pre-election opinion polls to get a sense of how the election might turn out in our constituency. Now that the election has happened we thought it might be interesting to go back and look at just how accurate these polls were. We looked at the difference between the actual result and the prediction for each party in each poll, and then calculated the total difference across all the parties for each poll. This proved to be very interesting.

Among the various polls analyzed, YouGov emerged as the most accurate, with a total difference of just 6.5 percentage points across all parties. This poll was particularly spot-on with its predictions for Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party, with minimal deviations from the actual results. Such accuracy reinforces YouGov’s reputation as a reliable source for gauging public sentiment.

In second place was Electoral Calculus, which had a total difference of 10.9 percentage points. While slightly less precise than YouGov, Electoral Calculus still provided relatively close estimates, especially for the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.

The other polls showed more significant discrepancies. For instance, More in Common and Financial Times had larger total differences of 20.2 and 24 points, respectively. These polls overestimated support for Labour and underestimated the Liberal Democrat vote share, highlighting the challenges pollsters face in capturing the shifting dynamics of voter behavior.

Interestingly, Survation and IPSOS were the least accurate, with total differences of 30.7 and 29.2 points, respectively. These polls significantly underestimated the Liberal Democrat performance while overestimating Labour’s share. Such variances underscore the inherent uncertainty in polling, where methodological differences and sampling errors can lead to varied results. Funnily enough, it was the Survation poll that Labour consistently chose to use in their election material. (One of their leaflets was headlined, “Poll after poll shows Lib Dems a distant third in Mid Sussex,” without mentioning that actually it was several versions of the same poll that made this prediction…!).

Election Maps UK provided a new perspective with a total difference of 19.3 points. While not the closest, it offered a fairly accurate prediction compared to other polls, highlighting the evolving landscape of polling methodologies.

Conclusion

Yougov has a reputation for accuracy, and in future elections it is certainly worth reflecting their data. Electoral Calculus is also worth a look. As for the others… well, perhaps take their data with a large pinch of salt!

UPDATE FROM MIDSUSSEX.ORG

Meet the new MP for Mid Sussex

The election of Liberal Democrat Alison Bennett to the parliamentary seat for Mid Sussex represents a significant shift in the political landscape of this traditionally Conservative stronghold. Her victory is a testament to her extensive campaign and the resonance of her platform with the local electorate.

Bennett’s academic background includes a degree in Social and Political Sciences from the University of Cambridge, obtained in 1999. She initially pursued a career in business, working at British Airways and later at E.on, where she focused on addressing fuel poverty. These experiences equipped her with a deep understanding of social and economic issues, which she later brought into her political career.

Her journey into politics was driven by a desire to make a tangible difference locally, a sentiment intensified by the political climate following Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Joining the Liberal Democrats in 2015, Bennett quickly rose through the ranks. She was elected as a district councillor for Hurstpierpoint in 2019, a remarkable achievement given the area’s long-standing Conservative dominance. Her election marked a significant shift, as she was the first non-Conservative councillor in the area in living memory.

As a district councillor and leader of the Liberal Democrats on the Mid Sussex District Council, Bennett’s leadership was pivotal. She helped the party become the largest on the council by 2023, forming a minority administration in coalition with independent councillors. This coalition has showcased her ability to navigate complex political landscapes and work towards shared goals despite differing approaches.

Bennett’s parliamentary campaign focused on local issues such as revitalising high streets, ensuring affordable housing, and protecting the environment. She actively opposed the expansion of Gatwick Airport and worked on local initiatives to combat fly-tipping and support refugees through fundraising for the Red Cross.

Her victory in the parliamentary election was bolstered by endorsements from unexpected quarters, including former Conservative councillor Clive Laband. Laband’s endorsement underscored Bennett’s appeal across traditional party lines and reflected a broader desire for change in Mid Sussex.

Now as the MP for Mid Sussex, Bennett faces the challenge of translating her campaign promises into actionable policies. Her priorities include addressing local economic development, enhancing public services, and advocating for environmental sustainability. Critics and supporters alike will be watching closely to see how effectively she can implement her vision for the constituency.

Alison Bennett’s win marks a significant political shift in Mid Sussex. Her journey from the corporate world to local and now national politics highlights her adaptability, determination, and commitment to public service. With her focus on both local and broader issues, she is poised to make a substantial impact in her new role as MP for Mid Sussex.

For more detailed information, you can visit the Mid Sussex Liberal Democrats website and local news coverage on the Sussex Express.

LIB DEMS TAKE MID SUSSEX

Result:

Liberal Democrat: 21,136

Conservative: 14,474

Labour: 9,397

Reform UK: 5,921

Green: 2,048

Monster Raving Loony Party: 352

Share of the vote:

Liberal Democrat: 39.6%

Conservative: 27.1%

Labour: 17.6%

Reform UK: 11.1%

Green: 3.8%

Monster Raving Loony Party: 0.7%

Change since 2019:

Liberal Democrat: +14.1%

Conservative: -24.2%

Labour: -0.4%

Reform UK: +11.1%

Green: -0.3%

Monster Raving Loony Party: -0.3%

Enormous congratulations to Alison Bennett, the new Liberal Democrat MP for Mid Sussex.

BBC SUGGESTS LIB DEMS TO TAKE MID SUSSEX

Jeremy Vine, on the BBC Election Night show, has suggested that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex. (NB This screen is based on the exit poll, NOT results).

EXIT POLL: MID SUSSEX TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT PROBABLE LIB DEM GAIN

The exit poll has been published and has stated that the result is “too close to call” in Mid Sussex.

That said, the poll gives a 64% chance of a Lib Dem gain and a 36% chance of a Conservative hold.

At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within a range of 1.5 and 7.5 seats.

VOTE LIB DEM IN MID SUSSEX

Today is election day. Whilst most of the polls (although not all) suggest that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex, realistically the seat is too close to call. There is still a possibility that the Conservatives could win here. Should the Reform UK supporters decide not to vote for a party in which the “vast majority” of candidates are “racist, misogynistic and bigoted” (Georgie David, the Reform candidate for West Ham and Beckton) and instead transfer their vote to the Conservative candidate, then the Conservatives could realistically take Mid Sussex.

Therefore, if you want do not want a Conservative MP representing you, the only sensible option today is to vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex. A vote for the Labour candidate in Mid Sussex is effectively a vote for the Tory candidate, since voting Labour will only serve to split the opposition vote.

We urge all Mid Sussex voters not to be complacent today and to get out to vote, and to put your cross in the Lib Dem box. And don’t forget your ID!

Final Yougov MRP: Lib Dem Gain

The final Yougov MRP data, published minutes ago, will delight Lib Dem supporters. Yougov’s latest data, published minutes ago, suggests that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex with a 43% share of the vote. Yougov put the Conservatives in second place with 24.5%, and Labour in third with 17.4%. This suggests a fairly comfortable win for the Lib Dems and is a significant shift for the Lib Dems from Yougov’s last MRP which had them on 36%, the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

This is another significant poll which suggests that the Lib Dems will take the Mid Sussex constituency. To this we say to those who wish to prevent the Tory candidate taking the seat, do not be complacent and vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex.

Final More In Common MRP: Lib Dem Gain

In marked contrast to the final Survation poll, More In Common’s final MRP suggests the Mid Sussex seat will be a Liberal Democrat gain with 30% of the vote. They put the Conservatives in second place with 28% of the vote, and Labour in third with 24%. This is a marked change from their previous poll, in which they put the Lib Dems on 40%, the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on just 16%. This new poll represents a significant weakening of the Lib Dem potential share, and a major strengthening of the Labour vote.

This poll will not be good news for the Lib Dems.

This final poll from More in Common suggests that the result in Mid Sussex could be very tight. There really is everything to play for for the three main parties.

We stand by our advice to vote Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory candidate being elected. This is especially the case if you are considering voting Labour to punish the Conservatives. We maintain that voting Labour in Mid Sussex will only serve to split the Tory opposition vote, which could potentially see the Conservative candidate elected.

Final Survation MRP: Labour Gain

Survation, which has consistently predicted that the Labour Party will take Mid Sussex, have published their final MRP poll. This still shows that Labour will gain Mid Sussex-but by a smaller margin.

They put Labour on 29.8% – down from 30.6% in their last poll. Meanwhile the Conservatives are on 29.3% in their latest research, up from 26.1%. The Liberal Democrats are now on 25.1%, up from 23.6% in Survation’s last MRP.

Survation also state that there is a 51% chance that Labour will win in Mid Sussex, a 37% chance that the Conservatives will win, and a 12% chance that the Lib Dems will take the seat.

It is worth noting that whilst Survation has consistently shown this result, it is very much an outlier (despite but Labour would have you believe); most of the other polls predict a Lib Dem victory, hence why we advise voting Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory taking the seat.