In what represents a significant change in projections, Electoral Calculus’ latest update predicts that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex.
Updated data suggests that the Conservative candidate will take 29.6% of the vote (essentially unchanged from their previous projection of 28.7%), whilst the Labour candidate drops from a 29.1% share to 23.1%. Meanwhile the Lib Dem projected share of the vote is up to 35.3% from 26.7% in the previous Electoral Calculus projection.
The latest projection also has predicted turnout up by nearly 4% which looks like it could make a big difference to the outcome.
Electoral Calculus now believe that there is a 57% chance that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex.
Previously we at MidSussex.org have suggested that those who are keen to see the Conservative candidate prevented from taking the seat should tactically vote Labour. On the basis of this poll, if the election were today, we would suggest that to keep the Conservative candidate out your vote should go to the Lib Dems in Mid Sussex. Of course this may change again in coming days.
Of course, we are aware that there are many in Mid Sussex who could never bring themselves to vote Labour but could vote Lib Dem. With this new projection it’s possible that more former Conservatives could vote tactically, which could actually see the Lib Dems increase their projected share of the vote in Mid Sussex.
Remember that Electoral Calculus claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”