Another prediction for the election outcome in Mid Sussex comes courtesy of ElectionPolling.co.uk. This site makes predictions based on a weighted average of polls, and then assumes a uniform swing. This is perhaps not as accurate as some, but as they say, “is still interesting nonetheless.”
Their prediction is Conservative hold but, with a significantly reduced majority of 15,802 (just 134 more votes than Labour).
The full details of the ElectionPolling.co.uk projected result in Mid Sussex are:
This projection gives an insignificant share of the vote to “minor parties” however, which presumably would include Reform UK. If the Reform candidate were to be more successful than predicted here (as predicted by Electoral Calculus, who believe Reform UK could get as much as 11% of the vote), that could draw support away from the Conservatives and secure a Labour victory.
As previous projections have suggested, if a voter were of a mind to attempt to block a Conservative victory, the best bet might be to vote Labour. How much that appeals to affluent Mid Sussex voters – particularly those inclined to support the Lib Dems – remains to be seen.
The Lib-Dem leaflet suggests that they are ahead on the basis of a ‘mega poll’ from February, so a mixed picture?