Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #1

Our first prediction is courtesy of Electoral Calculus, which claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”¹

Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives in Mid Sussex will hold the seat. According to their calculations², the Conservatives will gain 29.7% of votes (down from a 48.3% share in 2019), the Lib Dems will gain 26.7% of the vote (down from 28.9% of the vote), and Labour will gain 29.1% of the vote (up from 18.0%).

According to this prediction, whilst the Conservatives will hold the seat, Labour will come incredibly close to taking the seat. Should you be inclined to vote tactically in order to prevent the Conservatives winning, on the basis of this prediction, your X be given to Dave Rowntree, the Labour candidate.

1. Source: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_casestudy_ge2019.html ↩︎
2. Source: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Sussex+Mid ↩︎