Month: May 2024

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #3

Another prediction for the election outcome in Mid Sussex comes courtesy of ElectionPolling.co.uk. This site makes predictions based on a weighted average of polls, and then assumes a uniform swing. This is perhaps not as accurate as some, but as they say, “is still interesting nonetheless.”

Their prediction is Conservative hold but, with a significantly reduced majority of 15,802 (just 134 more votes than Labour).

The full details of the ElectionPolling.co.uk projected result in Mid Sussex are:

This projection gives an insignificant share of the vote to “minor parties” however, which presumably would include Reform UK. If the Reform candidate were to be more successful than predicted here (as predicted by Electoral Calculus, who believe Reform UK could get as much as 11% of the vote), that could draw support away from the Conservatives and secure a Labour victory.

As previous projections have suggested, if a voter were of a mind to attempt to block a Conservative victory, the best bet might be to vote Labour. How much that appeals to affluent Mid Sussex voters – particularly those inclined to support the Lib Dems – remains to be seen.

Who’s standing in Mid Sussex #2

According to the latest YouGov MRP the Green Party will gain 9% of the vote in Mid Sussex, and Reform UK will gain a not insignificant 11%. It’s probably worth identifying who will be representing these parties in Mid Sussex.

DEANNA NICHOLSON – GREEN PARTY

Deanna was selected to be the Green Party PPC for Mid Sussex on May 24. She has lived in Haywards Heath for 28 years, and has taught in local schools. She sits on Haywards Heath Town Council.

GARY JOHNSON – REFORM UK

Currently we have no detail. Feel free to contact us if you know who Gary Johnson is.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #2

Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows:

ConsLabourLib DemGreenReformOutcome
33%27%21%9%11%Cons hold

YouGov state that the method used for this projection uses the same statistical method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections.1

Like Electoral Calculus, this data suggests that Labour will take second place, but that the gap between the two will be greater.

Once again, should you be seeking to vote tactically to remove the Conservative, your vote should probably go to the Labour Party, Dave Rowntree.

  1. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats ↩︎

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #1

Our first prediction is courtesy of Electoral Calculus, which claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.”1

Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives in Mid Sussex will hold the seat. According to their calculations2, the Conservatives will gain 29.7% of votes (down from a 48.3% share in 2019), the Lib Dems will gain 26.7% of the vote (down from 28.9% of the vote), and Labour will gain 29.1% of the vote (up from 18.0%).

According to this prediction, whilst the Conservatives will hold the seat, Labour will come incredibly close to taking the seat. Should you be inclined to vote tactically in order to prevent the Conservatives winning, on the basis of this prediction, your X be given to Dave Rowntree, the Labour candidate.

Screenshot

  1. Source: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_casestudy_ge2019.html ↩︎
  2. Source: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Sussex+Mid ↩︎

Who’s standing in Mid Sussex #1

A quick look at the candidates standing for the three main political parties in Mid Sussex:

Kristy Adams – Conservative Party

Kristy Adams, the Conservative candidate, resides in Haywards Heath and has a strong background in the building industry. She attended local schools and has served as a Mid Sussex District Councillor. Kristy is committed to protecting green spaces, supporting local businesses, and enhancing community facilities. Her business experience drives her focus on economic growth and efficient public services. Kristy’s deep roots in the community reflect her dedication to addressing local issues effectively.

Discover more at Mid Sussex Conservatives.

Dave Rowntree – Labour Party

Dave Rowntree is the Labour candidate for Mid Sussex, notable for his career as the drummer of Blur and his work as a County Councillor. A long-time resident of the area, Dave has deep ties to Sussex. He is passionate about improving local healthcare, education, and public transport. Dave is committed to addressing climate change and promoting social justice, aiming to bring positive change to the community.

For more information, visit Mid Sussex Labour.

Alison Bennett – Liberal Democrats

Alison Bennett, the Liberal Democrat candidate, lives in Hassocks and has significant experience in local government. She attended school in Sussex and is actively involved in community service. Alison is dedicated to environmental sustainability, healthcare, and education. Her campaign focuses on implementing green policies, enhancing mental health services, and supporting educational opportunities for young people. Alison’s deep connection to the area informs her commitment to transparent and progressive governance.

Learn more at Mid Sussex Liberal Democrats.

All of the above was drawn from the candidates’ official websites. Profile pictures sourced from candidates’ x.com accounts.